Jan 17, 2010
Allen

Google vs. China and my thoughts on this matter…

I’m closely following the Google vs. China drama as it’s unfolding in front of our eyes. I’m still trying to digest what all of this will mean to me going forward. Here are a few things I’d like to say about this matter so far:

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People are too quick to judge…

Many factors probably drove Google to make the decision to stop uncensoring their Google.cn website even if it means closing down their Chinese operation. It’s a fair question to ask if Google would as easily make this choice if they were a clear no. 1 in the China market in search. I guess we’ll never know.

And from a business stand point, is this a bad decision to leave a huge market that’s full of opportunities and potential? I’d think so! Even if Google itself called its China revenue “immaterial,” I’d say a lot of companies come to China not for how much it can earn now but for what future growth China can bring. Google executives have no choice to play it down to avoid a huge drop in Google’s share price and to avoid potential shareholder lawsuits. But for sure Google is giving up a lot by leaving.

Anyway, what I know is this… There haven’t been enough facts out in the open. Most of us are on the outside and few people have all the details regarding the hacker attack and what Google has had to deal with in the last 4 years operating in China. That’s why I find it irritating that some people are quick to attack Google’s position that it decided to pull out of China in large part because it didn’t want to censor its search results anymore.

Stop talking like you know what’s going on. You don’t. And let’s wait a little bit before you make up your mind about this one way or another.

Everyone is a loser in this…

Clearly China’s reputation is taking a hit around the world. China’s censorship isn’t new but Google forced the issue into the spotlight. If it can, the Chinese government should hire a large PR firm to generate some good will fast.

And for Google, even with all the people it’s winning over, it is giving up a huge market with huge upside, as I’ve mentioned. It has to be considered a loser, too.

As for Baidu… well, it is probably enjoying the fact that its sales people can start calling Google customers and successfully ask them to switch to Baidu’s ad platform. But overall, a lack of competition is not good for anyone. Baidu may find itself lacking motivation to innovate and actually lose more relevance in the market. After all, this is a company known for its tainted search results.

The biggest losers of all this though are the Chinese Internet users – especially those without the resources or know-how to “climb over” the Great Firewall. They will probably lose not only Google.cn but also Google.com; not to mention all the other Google products and services, like Gmail.

I’m really concerned about the general direction Internet in China is heading…

People have started joking about that Internet in China is fast becoming a national Intranet… It’s becoming harder for people to run Internet-based businesses and the government is placing more limits on what content is allowed. There seems to be all kinds of licenses one would need to get just to get a web site/product/service up online. It’s all very frustrating.

Google said it would have to re-evaluate the feasibility of its China operation. I have to wonder about the same for my own Internet ventures…

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I wonder what will eventually happen. Will either side actually backdown? Will some kind of compromise be reached and both sides can keep face? If not, how fast will Google pull out and how fast will we lose access to all things Google in China?

I guess I will continue to monitor closely.

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